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Pollspeak: Overrated and Underrated

Sun, 09 Oct 2011 13:28:53 EDT

By taking a look at the AP poll from 2005-now, we can look at the five most overrated and underrated teams when it comes to preseason polls. Some schools continue to be ranked high in the preseason AP poll, only to finish nowhere near where they started.

12/24/10 Edit: Adding additional links to the entire list since some people didn't see it at the end and didn't understand how the rankings were calculated. Click the link for the full list: THE OVERRATED – UNDERRATED LIST.

Five Most Overrated Teams

1. Oklahoma: The Sooners are the most overrated team over the last five years, and as you might expect, it comes from having a strong, long-term reputation and high expectations. It was their 2009 season that cemented their place at the top. They started 2009 at No. 3 and dropped completely out of the polls by season’s end. They were overrated four of the last five years, but two of those (2008 and 2006) were very minor, one-spot changes. On the other hand, 2005 was another year of unmet expectations with the Sooners dropping from No. 7 in the preseason to No. 22 in the final. In the last five preseasons, Oklahoma has never been underestimated.

The Ballots Have Arrived!

Mon, 06 Dec 2010 14:54:01 EST

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

The last polls of the regular season were released on Sunday. Of course, there is still one more regular season game to be played: Army vs. Navy. This year, the outcome should have no bearing on the polls, but it is possible that someday it will. The BCS and AP should consider that in future seasons.

The last regular season polls means something big at Pollspeak: the release of the Coaches’ and Harris Interactive ballots! We get the AP ballots every week of the season, but this is the only week we get to see the other two. They don’t even get released after the bowl games. Check out all of the ballots here:

Man, That�s Just Mean

Sat, 04 Dec 2010 2:23:08 EST

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

This week is another great example of why people should care about polls and rankings. It’s not just about the BCS championship game. Teams with higher rankings get better TV, radio and newspaper coverage… and sometimes they even help determine conference championships.

This week, one conference is depending on the BCS to sort out their champions: the Big Ten. Also, the Big 12 came very close to having a repeat of 2008.

The Big 10 still has the three-way tie I discussed at length last week between Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Again, if you went in order of head-to-head victories, that is how they would be ranked: Michigan State > Wisconsin > Ohio State. Michigan State should be going to the Rose Bowl. Instead, they won’t be going to any BCS bowl because they are the lowest of the three in the BCS rankings.

Everybody Makes Mistakes

Sun, 28 Nov 2010 17:30:31 EST

Note : Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

The AP released an invalid poll on Sunday. It seems they used Bob Condotta’s old week 12 ballot while calculating the week 13 poll. Pollspeak brought this to the AP’s attention, and the ballot was quickly updated . However, the AP Poll itself was still incorrect since the numbers didn’t match up. Again, we notified the AP, and they released a new version of the poll. Luckily, there were no position changes in the top 25 (although there were some outside the top 25).

Thankfully, the AP is fully transparent, and we can help find issues like this. Unfortunately, the BCS isn’t. Neither the Coaches’ Poll nor the Harris Interactive Poll releases their ballots every week. Do similar mistakes happen in those polls? Very likely. Yet, we have no way to find those mistakes. This is something the BCS should address… and soon. If you would like to express your agreement on the matter, sign the PETITION .

A W is a W

Thu, 18 Nov 2010 13:23:25 EST

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

Wisconsin earned some serious style points this week. By “style points”, I mean stylishly destroying Indiana 83 to 20! Getting that many points has to impress everyone. It definitely impressed the voters since the Badgers remain the highest ranked one-loss team in the BCS human polls (No. 5). However, it didn’t impress the computers one byte. BCS computers are mandated to exclude margin of victory in their rankings. In fact, the computers actually dropped Wisconsin an average of two places from last week (from 10 to 12). BCS computers have no sense of style.

Outside the top four, there are two ranked, non-BCS teams: Utah and Nevada. This week’s polls, particularly the Coaches’ Poll, are a lesson in just how important record is to ranking. If you remove, Utah and Nevada, every other team falls in line based on their record: the first four teams have no losses, the next 7 have one loss, the next 5 have two losses, and the last seven have three losses. The other polls aren’t quite as delineated as the Coaches’ Poll, but they’re close.

Terminating the BCS

Tue, 09 Nov 2010 16:56:56 EST

Note : Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

If the computers had their way (and someday in the post-apocalyptic future, they will), it would be Auburn and TCU playing for the national championship. Meanwhile the humans (in their secret, underground coliseum) would have Oregon and Auburn playing each other. TCU certainly has the easiest path and will likely win out. Oregon is the next most-likely, and Auburn still has the toughest road to the BCS championship. So unless the BCS top two (Oregon and Auburn) fall, there is no salvation for TCU or even Boise State (the only other unbeatens). Barring a Terminator-led Judgment Day , there is nothing any computer can do to change things.

Happy Halloween from Pollspeak

Tue, 02 Nov 2010 12:54:49 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot. Click on other links at your own peril!

Welcome to the Halloween-themed edition of Pollspeak. Our first topic is: curses. With both Oregon and Auburn winning last weekend, The No. 1 curse has been broken…or has it? (Cue flash of lighting and thunder clap.)

Last week in both the Massey and Sagarin Ratings, Missouri was No. 1. The Tigers were buried by Nebraska, so that means there are still No. 1 teams in the BCS dropping like flies. This week the only No. 1 teams are Oregon and Auburn, and with upcoming games against Chattanooga and Washington respectively, it’s likely the curse will be truly broken next week. (Cue wolf howls.)

One Is The Loneliest Number

Wed, 27 Oct 2010 10:07:43 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

For the second week in a row, a team outside the top two in the human polls is the BCS No.1. All three human polls have Oregon No. 1 and Boise State No. 2. Yet, Auburn is the BCS No. 1 due to four of the six computers ranking them on top. This is truly surprising considering that, historically, the voters have slighted the Broncos while the computers have usually regarded them higher. Who would have thought that a well-respected and undefeated SEC team would need to rely on the computers to set the voters straight? It looks like it is going to take a No. 1 ranking in the human polls, for Boise State to have any shot at the title. Meanwhile, the computers are only going to make it harder for the Broncos as their strength of schedule gets worse with each WAC opponent.

You Can't Spell BCS Without CBS

Tue, 19 Oct 2010 13:00:06 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

The first BCS Standings of the season are out. For those who have only been using Pollstalker to check out the AP ballots up till now, let me direct you to the BCS+AP Report. Each week, you can also use Pollstalker to compare how each component of the BCS (plus the AP Poll) ranks each team. For example, you can easily see that Alabama is ranked lower by Sagarin than any other component, or that Florida is ranked highest by Billingsley at No. 20, or you could compare Boise State’s rankings to Oregon’s in the ten different systems.

As for the AP, Pollstalker tells us that Jon Wilner is the most extreme voter this week. Nothing new there, but he outdid himself this week with 14 extreme votes and 5 near-extremes. That means he only had 6 teams on his ballot that are generally in line with the other voters. His bottom five teams (No. 21 – No. 25) are all lowest in the nation, in order: Utah, Nebraska, Missouri, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Sometimes being extreme can mean the voter is thinking more like the computers, without all the pre-season baggage that often comes with voters. However, a quick check of the same teams in the BCS+AP report (Utah, Nebraska, Missouri, West Virginia and Oklahoma State) shows that Wilner would also be a very extreme computer.

Head-to-Head-to-Head Comes to a Head

Mon, 18 Oct 2010 8:47:31 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

The first Harris Interactive College Football Poll of the season was released this week, which means we’re just a week away from the first official BCS rankings. The Harris Interactive Poll is pretty similar in content this week to both the Coaches and AP Poll. It does place Arizona lowest of any BCS component at No. 21.

For reference, here is a list of all of the voter changes in the Harris Interactive Poll from 2009 to 2010. There were only 12 people replaced from what is the largest voter pool of any poll (114). Compared to the AP Poll and Coaches’ Poll, which has replaced about 50% of their voters over the last two years, the Harris Interactive number seems very small. Is that an issue? Probably not, but it is something to keep an eye on. One reason is that voter turnover helps prevent corruption. In other words, if 90% of the voters are going to stay the same from year to year, it makes it a lot easier to “fix” the polls. No amount of change can completely prevent corruption, but there is no sense it making it easier.

Ghosts of Weeks Past

Mon, 18 Oct 2010 8:48:06 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

In the Coaches Poll, there was one less voter this week because Arizona coach Mike Stoops couldn’t be reached. The Wildcats had a bye week so maybe Stoops went on vacation and forgot that the rest of the teams continue to play without them. It’s too bad because at No. 11, Arizona is ranked lower in the Coaches Poll than any other BCS component or the AP.

The past is coming back to haunt a couple of teams. Oregon jumped over Boise State to claim the No. 3 spot in both polls. Boise State might feel cheated, but the feeling will likely get worse over the coming weeks. There are currently 16 undefeated teams in the top 25 (and a few still unranked). Any of those teams has a chance to push past the Broncos depending on their strength of schedule. If Virginia Tech wouldn’t have lost that week-two game to James Madison, Boise State would have had a shot, but now there isn’t much the Broncos can do except hope for other teams to lose.

CBSSports.com, Pollspeak notify AP of error

Mon, 18 Oct 2010 8:48:39 EDT

UPDATE: From Travis Haney's twitter account: "The AP voters (including me) just got an e-mail outlining policies. It wants us to check with it, to ensure it gets our ballots."

The lead in the Associated Press' AP Top 25 story doesn't tell the whole story of what transpired last night.

NEW YORK -- Michigan moved up a spot to No. 19 and South Carolina moved down to No. 20 Sunday night after it was learned that an out of date ballot was used in tabulating the Associated Press college football poll. No other rankings changed when the correct ballot was entered.

Late last night as we were looking for voters to break down in our blog and weekly "Ballot Grades" we noticed Greg Archuleta, from the Albuquerque Journal had the same ballot as the previous week.

Running Out of Ballot Space

Mon, 18 Oct 2010 8:49:09 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

Let’s start out with hearty congratulations to Nevada who earned their first AP Ranking (No. 25) since they climbed as high as No. 10 in 1948! They also sit at No. 25 in the Coaches’ Poll. Nevada deserves it for reaching 4-0 while beating teams like California and BYU. Meanwhile, with its third loss, it looks like BYU picked the wrong week to go independent.

So much for the computer’s high expectations of Texas. Last week two of them had Texas pegged as No. 1. After their stunning home loss to UCLA, the Longhorns have dropped this week as low as No. 28 in the Colley Matrix. That isn’t much worse than the AP, who dropped Texas all the way from No. 7 last week to No. 21. Fourteen spots is an exceptionally large single-week drop. Of course, it still doesn’t compare to Michigan’s infamous 2007 drop from No. 5 to unranked after the Appalachian State loss.

Pollspeak Goes Head-To-Head With The Voters

Sat, 25 Sep 2010 14:14:53 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

Texas is fast becoming a computer darling. The Longhorns are No. 1 in both the Sagarin and Massey BCS ratings. Meanwhile the AP has Texas lowest of all the rankings at No. 7. It may be a coincidence, but the Computer Science Department at The University of Texas currently boasts a 5% enrollment increase. We’ll be watching that UTCS isn’t promising the computers more technical support in return for higher rankings. (The jokes may get better as the season goes on, but no promises, and frankly, it’s unlikely.)

The coaches have Arizona lowest (No. 16) of any BCS component or the AP. If only we could see the coaches’ ballots and how many of them rank Iowa over Arizona still. Otherwise, the USA Today Poll is pretty standard fare this week.

Pollspeak Remembers 2007 and Ranked ACC Teams

Tue, 14 Sep 2010 15:10:27 EDT

Note : Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

Virginia Tech lost to James Madison last Saturday, and two of the California voters, Jon Wilner and Ray Ratto , actually have the “Dukes” ranked on their ballots this week. Wilner has them all the way up at No. 19. The last time an FCS school received that many votes was when Appalachian State beat Michigan in 2007, which also happens to be the last time an FCS team beat a ranked FBS team.

Of course, Virginia Tech’s loss hurts themselves more than anyone ( they didn’t receive a single vote ), but it also hurts Boise State . The Broncos victory over the Hokies was their signature win for the year. Now there is a possibility that Virginia Tech will finish the year unranked and cost Boise State any chance they had at the BCS Championship. As it is, the Broncos lost 7 first place votes this week just by sitting at home watching the games on TV. Their last remaining No. 1 vote comes from Pete DiPrimio of the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel.

We Welcome the First Polls of the Regular Season

Wed, 08 Sep 2010 16:26:44 EDT

Note: Clicking a team link in this blog will show you how everyone voted for that team. Clicking a voter name link will show you their ballot.

There were some surprise changes to the AP Voters this week. As we reported last week, Tom Hart of the Big Ten Network was being replaced by Dave Curtis of the Sporting News. However, Curtis was unable to vote and was immediately replaced by Brett McMurphy of AOL Fanhouse. USC fans might be most upset since McMurphy is one of only three voters to leave the Trojans off his ballot. Also, Scott Carter of the Tampa Tribune was replaced by Greg Auman of the St. Petersburg Times this week.

Scott Wolf is this week’s most extreme voter. He gives Texas their lone No. 1 vote but seems to think very little of the Big Ten, ranking Ohio State, Iowa , Wisconsin and Penn State (unranked) lowest in the nation.

AP Voter Removed Due to Big Ten Relationship

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 18:19:11 EDT

Tom Hart will no longer be voting in the 2010 AP football poll due to his recent change in employment to the Big Ten Network. Pollspeak reported the potential for bias directly to the AP on August, 22nd, the day after the preseason AP football poll was released.

As we also mentioned in our previous blog: “…this is the first time we know of where an AP Voter has a formal relationship with a specific conference. While there is no hint of Big Ten bias in his preseason ballot, it will be worth keeping an eye out for it as the season progresses. In fact, he ranked incoming member Nebraska, lowest of any voter.”

Even though there was no bias in favor of the Big Ten in Hart’s ballot, to their credit, the AP responded swiftly and did the right thing by replacing Hart as a voter. The AP’s willingness to address even the potential for bias, once again, demonstrates why Pollspeak gives it their highest ranking.

Inside The 2010 Preseason AP Poll

Sat, 04 Sep 2010 11:05:09 EDT

Note: All individual links will open up that person's specific ballot. Team links will show where every voter has ranked that school.

Joe Giglio, of the News & Observer in Raleigh, North Carolina gave Boise State its lone No. 1 vote. This helped the Broncos to their highest-ever poll ranking at No. 3. Pollstalker also tagged Giglio as this week’s most-extreme voter. For those new to Pollspeak, “extreme” doesn’t mean “bad.” It means this person has the most rankings on the edge (highest or lowest). Now that COULD be a sign of a bad voter (i.e. a monkey throwing darts would likely be extreme), but it could also be a sign of somebody doing their own research and thinking…especially in the preseason where there are fewer tangibles to base ranks upon.

2010 Preseason AP Poll Is Out

Sat, 21 Aug 2010 12:17:41 EDT

You can see how the AP Poll compares to the other preseason polls here: PRESEASON POLLS

You can see all of the AP Ballots and how each voter ranked any team here: AP BALLOTS

Inside The Preseason Coaches' Poll

Fri, 20 Aug 2010 21:29:53 EDT

The 2010 USA Today Preseason Coaches’ Poll was released on Friday, August 6th. Here are some quick facts to mull over:

· The Big East earned some more respect this year. In 2009 they had a surprising ZERO teams ranked in the preseason poll. This year Pittsburgh checks in at No. 15 and West Virginia is tied with Utah for No. 24/25. 2009’s Big East champion, Cincinnati, sits just outside at No. 26.

· While many predicted Boise State might be ranked as high as No. 3, they debut at No. 5, which is still their highest-ever preseason ranking. On that note, week one’s Labor Day game features an incredible matchup between the Broncos and No. 6, Virginia Tech. This will be the best season opener since Baba Booey “threw” the first pitch.